I watched the latest episode of "The Sopranos" last night. Probably the best episode ever of the best TV show ever made. AJ made a lame attempt at suicide and Tony almost killed a creep who harassed his daughter. The feud with Phil Leotardo is about to boil over.
Tony's interludes with his psychiatrist are what makes this more than just another mob drama. The show would be good without that circumspective aspect, but it is truly great with it.
It is clear that the series is coming to an explosive end. I think they have dropped a number of hints about what will happen to Tony Soprano in the next 2 final episodes. I think the obvious outcomes are Tony's death or his imprisonment. There is one other possibility that I haven't heard anyone mention, so I won't do it here. It has been alluded to in the show, though.
If you haven't watched this show, get the DVD's or download the torrents. This is some outstanding TV.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Monday, May 21, 2007
Covered calls
Every month I buy stocks to sell covered calls on them.
Last month I made a couple hundred dollars writing calls on a steel company called Steel Dynamics (STLD) . I sold an in-the-money call at the beginning of the option cycle for May, bought it back once when it dipped (netting $150). A few days later on the upswing I sold it again for the original price. I let that one run to expiration and got called out over the weekend, netting another $200.
This morning I bought 300 shares of AK Steel holdings (AK) for 33.75 and sold 3 June 32.50 calls for 2.75 each. This will net $450 (3x150) if I get called out as planned, maybe a little more if I get the chance to buy it back on a dip and re-sell it.
This works out to about 4.0% a on $10,125 in play for the month, less transaction fees (about $35 total). Not bad for a moderate risk.
I have had the best returns in the last year or so on steel product companies, and the copper company Souther Peru (PCU). Not sexy or cutting edge, but for some reason, steel companies have had good, predictable returns on covered calls.
I am basically playing the time-decay game, using selling in-the-money near options and planning to get called out. I have lost a few times, mostly when I go against my general guidelines, but I average 2-3% per month, and never a catastrophic loss (almost though!). I set up these trades at the beginning of the monthly cycle (the Monday following the 3rd Friday of the month). Then I monitor them to see if there is a buy back opportunity. It takes discipline to keep from buying back prematurely.
If my options close out of the money, then I decide whether to write a call for the next month or liquidate the position and try something else. In these cases I usually break even.
I avoid high tech, pharma, companies that depend on interest rates (like lenders of any kind), companies that depend on government contracts, companies that are announcing earning before the options I want to write will expire, and companies with a PE over 35 or so. I also look at the 6 month Bollinger bands and 120 day moving averages. I am not a technical trading expert, but I look at these indicators to get a general view. If an otherwise great stock is bumping up against its upper band then I am very wary.
The times I have lost money have been when I violated one of these basics.
Last month I made a couple hundred dollars writing calls on a steel company called Steel Dynamics (STLD) . I sold an in-the-money call at the beginning of the option cycle for May, bought it back once when it dipped (netting $150). A few days later on the upswing I sold it again for the original price. I let that one run to expiration and got called out over the weekend, netting another $200.
This morning I bought 300 shares of AK Steel holdings (AK) for 33.75 and sold 3 June 32.50 calls for 2.75 each. This will net $450 (3x150) if I get called out as planned, maybe a little more if I get the chance to buy it back on a dip and re-sell it.
This works out to about 4.0% a on $10,125 in play for the month, less transaction fees (about $35 total). Not bad for a moderate risk.
I have had the best returns in the last year or so on steel product companies, and the copper company Souther Peru (PCU). Not sexy or cutting edge, but for some reason, steel companies have had good, predictable returns on covered calls.
I am basically playing the time-decay game, using selling in-the-money near options and planning to get called out. I have lost a few times, mostly when I go against my general guidelines, but I average 2-3% per month, and never a catastrophic loss (almost though!). I set up these trades at the beginning of the monthly cycle (the Monday following the 3rd Friday of the month). Then I monitor them to see if there is a buy back opportunity. It takes discipline to keep from buying back prematurely.
If my options close out of the money, then I decide whether to write a call for the next month or liquidate the position and try something else. In these cases I usually break even.
I avoid high tech, pharma, companies that depend on interest rates (like lenders of any kind), companies that depend on government contracts, companies that are announcing earning before the options I want to write will expire, and companies with a PE over 35 or so. I also look at the 6 month Bollinger bands and 120 day moving averages. I am not a technical trading expert, but I look at these indicators to get a general view. If an otherwise great stock is bumping up against its upper band then I am very wary.
The times I have lost money have been when I violated one of these basics.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Harry Shearer
I really like "Le Show" by Harry Shearer, which is broadcast by KCRW public radio and downloadable from their site. He presents an hour long monolog with musical interludes, and very acutely skewers the current political scene, with particular sarcasm towards republicans.
A regular feature is the "Apologies of The Week" where he recounts the various public apologies made by public figures and institutions over the previous week.
Definitely a cut above the Colbert Report and the Nightly Show, both of which I find too hip and ironic for my taste. Shearer is more Bill Maher than Jon Stewart (and that's a good thing IMO).
The KCRW podcast page is www.kcrw.com/podcasts
Also, links to past and current shows for download can be found at Harry's site:
www.harryshearer.com/index_2.html. Click on the "Le Show" link.
A regular feature is the "Apologies of The Week" where he recounts the various public apologies made by public figures and institutions over the previous week.
Definitely a cut above the Colbert Report and the Nightly Show, both of which I find too hip and ironic for my taste. Shearer is more Bill Maher than Jon Stewart (and that's a good thing IMO).
The KCRW podcast page is www.kcrw.com/podcasts
Also, links to past and current shows for download can be found at Harry's site:
www.harryshearer.com/index_2.html. Click on the "Le Show" link.
Monday, May 7, 2007
Seed Beads
Seed beads have been selling more and more lately. We get almost as many orders for seed beads as we do for Delicas. The seed beads we sell are high quality Miyukis, in 4 sizes. They are much better than Matsunos (more uniform shapes and more vibrant colors), and far better than cheap Chinese imitations.
We will continue to add more colors as time goes on
Click here for Seed Beads
We will continue to add more colors as time goes on
Click here for Seed Beads
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Resignations?
Isn't it time for both Paul Wolfowitz and Alberto Gonzales to resign?
Perhaps they could form a consulting group in Washington and advise clients on how to ethically manage personnel issues.
Perhaps they could form a consulting group in Washington and advise clients on how to ethically manage personnel issues.
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